Teacher Insights: How Digital Technology Helps in Growth and Access to Quality Education  |  Management lessons: How Brands Use CARE to Stay on Top in Instagram  |  Hobbies &Trends: At Full Throttle  |  Finance: Bitcoin Mobile Apps Vulnerable to Security Threats: Guan-Hua Tu, MSU  |  International Edu News: Use plants' ability to tell the time to make food production more sustainable  |  International Edu News: Scientists develop new class of cancer drug with potential to treat leukaemia  |  International Edu News: Loan applications processed around midday more likely to be rejected  |  International Edu News: Researchers find climate change impacts plankton – a key marine food source  |  International Edu News: Nature must be a partner, not just a provider of services – Oxford report  |  National Edu News: Approval to MoU between India and UK on Global Innovation Partnership  |  National Edu News: Transfer of CSIR-CMERI technologies to three MSMEs  |  Parent Interventions: Child Learning Programs: How to Find the Right One for You  |  Rajagiri Round Table: Fitness Challenge for the Nation  |  Education Information: West Bengal Scholarship 2021  |  Education Information: What is PMEGP Scheme? How can you get it?  |  
May 04, 2021 Tuesday 11:17:44 AM IST

Scientists working on SUTRA model for charting trajectory of COVID-19

National Edu News

Three scientists - Manindra Agrawal, Professor, IIT Kanpur, Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief, Integrated Defense Staff and M Vidyasagar, Professor, IIT Hyderabad are working on the SUTRA model for charting the trajectory of COVID-19, would like to clearly point out some facts related to predictions of our mathematical model, especially since some of these have been misunderstood and misquoted. Recent reports in some media seem to suggest that scientists working on the SUTRA model cautioned in March about the second wave but attention was not paid to it. This is incorrect. A meeting was called on 2nd April to seek their inputs by one of the very senior officers of the government coordinating the national pandemic response. They indicated that the SUTRA model predicted the second wave to peak by the third week of April and to stay most likely around 1 lakh daily cases.  Clearly, the model predictions in this instance were incorrect because of the reasons below.

They have been working on a mathematical model to predict the spread of the virus. It is important to note that a mathematical model can only predict the future with some certainty so long as virus dynamics and its transmissibility don’t change substantially over time. Mathematical models can also provide a mechanism for predicting alternate scenarios corresponding to various policy decisions such as non-pharmaceutical interventions. In the case of COVID-19, it is clear that the nature of the virus has been changing very rapidly. In such a context, any prediction for COVID-19 must be continually readjusted, sometimes almost daily. The scientists are working closely with the government and our inputs have always been received positively. While we could not predict the exact nature of the second wave earlier, we continue our efforts to better estimate its future trajectory.