Expert Counsel: The India Way  |  Science Innovations: DST Scientists find clue to anomalous behaviour of self-propelled fluctuations  |  Technology Inceptions: INSPIRE Faculty fellow’s engineering to produce heat-tolerant wheat varieties  |  National Edu News: Indians to soon have access to Chitra Flow Diverter stent  |  National Edu News: Sensitive Youth will Create New India: Smriti Zubin Irani  |  Education Information: Sports Ministry to name all upgraded sporting facilities after sportspersons  |  Finance: Elephant in the Room  |  Guest Column: Pandemic Effect on Education  |  Parent Interventions: Fast food restaurant proximity likely doesn't affect children's weight   |  Parent Interventions: Families' remote learning experience during lockdown positive   |  Health Monitor: Helplines are Open  |  National Edu News: Dr Harsh Vardhan inaugurates the new entity CSIR-NIScPR  |  National Edu News: Remarkable indigenous technologies developed during the Covid pandemic   |  National Edu News: PM to launch Pan India Rollout of COVID-19 Vaccination drive on 16 January  |  Science Innovations: Sunscreen Lotions May Cause Breast Cancer  |  
March 24, 2020 Tuesday 02:59:05 PM IST

Covid-19 -ICMR Mathematical Model Shows Home Quarantine Can Be Highly Effective

Management lessons

A mathematical modelling done on spread of COVID-19 infection by Indian Council of Medical Research  (ICMR) suggests that entry screening of travellers with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 can delay the introduction of the virus into the community by three days to three weeks. Strictly implemented social distancing measures such as home quarantine of symptomatics and suspected cases will reduce the overall expected number of cases by 62% and the peak number of cases by 89%, thus “flattening” the curve and providing more opportunities for interventions. 
These model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more needs to be understood about the rate at which infection of this novel virus transmits among susceptible individuals. 

It was assumed that symptomatic quarantine would identify and quarantine 50 per cent of symptomatic individuals within three days of developing symptoms. In an optimistic scenario of the basic reproduction number (R00) being 1.5, and asymptomatic infections lacking any infectiousness, such measures would reduce the cumulative incidence by 62 per cent. In the pessimistic scenario of R0=4, and asymptomatic infections being half as infectious as symptomatic, this projected impact falls to two per cent.

Interpretation & conclusions: Port-of-entry-based entry screening of travellers with suggestive clinical features and from COVID-19-affected countries, would achieve modest delays in the introduction of the virus into the community. Acting alone, however, such measures would be insufficient to delay the outbreak by weeks or longer. Once the virus establishes transmission within the community, quarantine of symptomatics may have a meaningful impact on disease burden. Model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more is understood about the natural history of infection of this novel virus. As a public health measure, health system and community preparedness would be critical to control any impending spread of COVID-19 in the country. 
More details here:


http://www.ijmr.org.in/preprintarticle.asp?id=281325;type=0


Comments